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	<title>Advancing a Free Society</title>
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	<description>Views of Fellows &#38; Friends of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University</description>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/17/the-omnibus-22/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/17/the-omnibus-22/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 00:15:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5905</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<!-- GООООООО -->
Banks need more capital, not more rules. Allan H. Meltzer in the WSJ.


Fouad Ajami posts from the Syrian refugee camps in Turkey.


One of those days ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/17/the-omnibus-22/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/117636" target="_blank">Banks need more capital, not more rules</a>. Allan H. Meltzer in the <em>WSJ</em>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Fouad Ajami <a href="http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/14/ac360-blog-posting-from-syria-by-fouad-ajami-mr-anderson-andersoncooper-visits-the-lost-world/" target="_blank">posts from the Syrian refugee camps in Turkey</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>One of those days at Hoover when we have to gleefully embrace what nerds we really are. Share our excitement at <a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/117581" target="_blank">the release</a> by the <a href="http://www.hoover.org/library-and-archives" target="_blank">Hoover Library and Archives</a> of more than three hundred programs from William F. Buckley’s <a href="http://hoohila.stanford.edu/firingline/index.php" target="_blank">Firing Line television series</a> now available on <a href="http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss/185-9563501-7359756?url=search-alias%3Dinstant-video&amp;field-keywords=firing+line+with+william+f.+buckley+jr.&amp;x=0&amp;y=0" target="_blank">Amazon Instant Video</a>, which offers instant streaming on compatible devices.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>California&#8217;s Ballots: If&#8217;s, And&#8217;s&#8230;and Butts</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/17/californias-ballots-ifs-ands-and-butts/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/17/californias-ballots-ifs-ands-and-butts/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 May 2012 19:24:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Whalen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 In Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I just voted in California’s June 5 primary.</p>
<p>No, that’s not a typo.</p>
<p>About 58% of all primary ballots in the Golden State pending election are so-called ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/17/californias-ballots-ifs-ands-and-butts/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just voted in California’s June 5 primary.</p>
<p>No, that’s not a typo.</p>
<p>About <a href="http://www.dailybulletin.com/ci_20562187/californias-vote-by-mail-begins-this-week" target="_blank">58% of all primary ballots</a> in the Golden State pending election are so-called “vote by mail”, a fancier way of saying “absentee ballot”. Call it California’s special way of decision-making, with a Netflix twist.</p>
<p>A scintillating ballot, it’s not. The Republican presidential race is long over; Dianne Feinstein’s quest for a fifth U.S. Senate win has all the drama of an old-style Soviet election.</p>
<p>Still, there’s a stopping point on the ballot that says oodles about the voters’ zeitgeist: Proposition 28 &amp; 29.</p>
<p>Let’s take them, in numerical order.</p>
<p><a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_28,_Change_in_Term_Limits_%28June_2012%29" target="_blank">Prop 28</a> would alter California’s term-limits law. Instead of the current 14-year limit (at max, three two-year terms in the State Assembly and two four-year stints in the State Senate), the new limit would be 12 years in the State Legislature.</p>
<p><span id="more-5903"></span></p>
<p>The tradeoff: lawmakers could spend the entire time in one of the chambers, thus either doubling their Assembly tenure or adding an extra 50% to their Senate career.</p>
<p>Will voters go along with the change? Since <a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Term_Limits,_Proposition_140_%281990%29" target="_blank">Proposition 140</a> was approved in 1990 and California state legislative term limits went into effect, two ballot measures have sought to amend the restrictions. <a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_45,_Extended_Terms_in_Office_via_Petition_%28March_2002%29" target="_blank">Prop 45</a>, which was trounced back in 2002, would have enabled termed-out lawmakers to serve an extra four years in Sacramento – if their constituents submitted enough petitions to put them on the ballot. A second “reform” bid – 2008’s <a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_93,_Amendment_to_Term_Limits_Law_%28February_2008%29" target="_blank">Prop 93</a> – would have granted legislators an extra four to six years’ stay. It lost by a more modest 7%.</p>
<p>So why believe the third time’s a charm for changing the law? Arguably (and I’m not saying it’s gonna happen):</p>
<p>1)  <strong>Clever Labeling</strong>. Prop 28’s title – “Limits on Legislators’ Terms” – should appeal to anti-Sacramento voters, even if the measure rewards legislators by giving them newfound flexibility within the Legislature.</p>
<p>2)  <strong>Generational Change?</strong> Take a look <a href="http://www.termlimits.org/content.asp?pl=18&amp;sl=19&amp;contentid=19" target="_blank">here</a> at the 15 states with state legislative term limits. The last one to join the “movement” – Nebraska – did so in 2000. California’s choice (only Arkansas and Michigan have the same 14-year limits; the other state opted for 16-24-year caps) came 22 years ago. Maybe the concept’s still <em>au currant</em>; then again, when’s he last time you listened to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milli_Vanilli" target="_blank">Milli Vanilli</a>?</p>
<p>3)  <strong>A Way to Vent. </strong>A great political murder mystery these days: “Who Killed California’s Political Process?” Prop 28 will appeal to those who think the prime suspects are greenhorn legislators who, thanks to their limited time on the job, make unwise decisions and are unduly dominated by special interests.</p>
<p>This much we know. Thanks to term limits, California’s legislative bodies are less white and less male than they were a generation ago. Ironically, they’re also <a href="http://yubanet.com/california/Term-Limits-Force-California-Legislators-to-Take-Their-Expertise-to-Other-Government-Offices.php#.T7Qtuo6hDlJ" target="_blank">more prone to a political mindset</a> in that two-thirds of Assembly members now come from local government, compared to less than one-third back in 1990 (the good news: the number of state senators with law degrees fell from 39% to 21%).</p>
<p>Something else we know: 20 years ago, then-Gov. Pete Wilson had to solve a California budget meltdown. His dance partner: then-Assembly Speaker Willie Brown – he of 25 years in the Assembly (the chamber’s <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2010/mar/15/local/la-me-cap15-2010mar15" target="_blank">“Ayatollah”</a>) and a decade as Speaker.</p>
<p>In 2012, Gov. Jerry Brown’s budgetary dance partners are Senate President Pro Tem Darrell (yet to complete his first Senate term, though he is an Assembly veteran) and Assembly Speaker John Perez, a former labor union official elected Speaker in his first Assembly term.</p>
<p>Which governor would you rather be?</p>
<p>Which leads us to the other measure on the ballot: <a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_29,_Tobacco_Tax_for_Cancer_Research_Act_%28June_2012%29" target="_blank">Proposition 29</a>.</p>
<p>If approved, Prop 29 would add another $1 to California’s cigarette tax (currently 87 cents a pack), with the proceeds going to cancer research and smoking-reduction programs.</p>
<p>In 1999, California had the nation’s third-highest tobacco; today, it’s now <a href="http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20120514/WIRE/205141052/1033/news?Title=California-now-33rd-in-tobacco-taxation" target="_blank">the 33<sup>rd</sup> most stringent</a>.</p>
<p>As with the term limits debates, it’s political <em>déjà vu</em> for Golden State voters: back in 2006, Californians narrowly rejected <a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_86,_Cigarette_Taxes_%282006%29" target="_blank">Prop 86</a>, which would have imposed an additional $2.60 per-pack tax.</p>
<p>Unlike the companion ballot measure, Prop 29 isn’t a referendum on Sacramento. But it does pertain to the State Capitol in this regard: as Prop 29 goes, perhaps so too does so Gov. Brown’s hopes for convincing Californians to sign off of a <a href="http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=news/state&amp;id=8657276" target="_blank">tax-hike initiative of his own design</a> later this fall.</p>
<p>Figure it this way: the folks behind Prop 29 haven’t shied away from pushing emotional buttons. Ads <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrCTHcglAOg" target="_blank">like this one</a> have featured cancer victims and somber music; from the beginning, one the world’s most famous cancer survivors, Tour de France winner Lance Armstrong, has been <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVvRkeZzFW8" target="_blank">a pro-29 pitchman</a>.</p>
<p>Countering the emotional sell: the “no” campaign’s <a href="http://www.noon29.com/the-facts" target="_blank">warnings</a> of additional bureaucracy, and revenue that won’t be reinvested in California (<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNHKfj04op4" target="_blank">here’s</a> an example – btw, the doctor featured in this ad was subsequently booted from a state medical panel). In other words: boilerplate conservative talking points that, historically at least, have been effective in tax initiative fights.</p>
<p>What should concern Gov. Brown and every Sacramento Democrat who dreams of the tax hike as a means of avoiding further spending cuts: if an initiative campaign that showcases the very human tragedy of a dreaded disease and, in no uncertain terms, demonizes Big Tobacco can’t get 50% of the vote in (for the most part) health-conscious and (for the most part) smoke-free California? What say that about the three tax hikes headed voters’ way this fall?</p>
<p>As the other Jerry (Seinfeld, not Brown) would say: Good luck with all that.</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/16/the-omnibus-21/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/16/the-omnibus-21/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 22:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5901</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>California Edition</p>

&#8220;Can California be fixed?&#8221; Victor Davis Hanson over at NRO&#8217;s The Corner.


A New York Times reported story on Gov. Brown&#8217;s leadership during the Golden ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/16/the-omnibus-21/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>California Edition</p>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;<a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/299975/can-california-be-fixed-victor-davis-hanson" target="_blank">Can California be fixed?</a>&#8221; Victor Davis Hanson over at NRO&#8217;s The Corner.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>A <em>New York Times</em> reported story on <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/15/us/brown-proposes-8-3-billion-in-cuts-for-california.html?_r=3" target="_blank">Gov. Brown&#8217;s leadership during the Golden State&#8217;s fiscal crisis</a>, quoting Bill Whalen, Hoover fellow, former speechwriter to Gov. Pete Wilson, and adviser to Republican governors in the state.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>On NBC Bay Area News, a 6-min interview with Tammy Frisby on <a href="http://www.nbcbayarea.com/video/#!/news/local/Responding-to-California-s-Budget-Crisis/151478805" target="_blank">Gov. Brown&#8217;s May Revision to the state budget, upcoming tax initiative, and the need for real tax reform</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Speaking of tax reform for economic growth and steadier state revenues in California &#8212; from <em>The Wall Street Journal</em> archives &#8211; and worth going back to read: economists Michael Boskin &amp; John Cogan on &#8220;<a href="http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574443112002063586.html?mg=reno64-wsj" target="_blank">How California Can Get Its Groove Back</a>.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Also from the <em>WSJ</em> archives: Boskin &amp; Cogan on &#8220;<a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/110946" target="_blank">California&#8217;s Greek Tragedy</a>.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/15/the-omnibus-20/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/15/the-omnibus-20/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 00:49:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5899</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Economist John Taylor likes to bring a guitar to lecture when he teaches about business cycles.


While you&#8217;re at Taylor&#8217;s blog, Economics One, Taylor assigns some ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/15/the-omnibus-20/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>Economist John Taylor <a href="http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/more-evidence-on-what-is-holding.html" target="_blank">likes to bring a guitar to lecture</a> when he teaches about business cycles.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>While you&#8217;re at Taylor&#8217;s blog, <a href="http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/more-evidence-on-what-is-holding.html" target="_blank">Economics One</a>, Taylor assigns some required reading &#8211; <a href="http://www.hoover.org/research/working-papers" target="_blank">a 1988 Hoover working paper by Milton Friedman (E-88-48)</a> describing the &#8220;plucking model&#8221; of business cycles. Also <a href="http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/more-evidence-on-what-is-holding.html" target="_blank">two graphs</a>, curated by Taylor, that provide more evidence on how government action is interfering with the usual &#8220;plucking&#8221; response and holding back the economic recovery.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Fouad Ajami <a href="http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/14/mr-anderson-visits-the-lost-world/?iref=allsearch" target="_blank">traveled to Turkey with Anderson Cooper</a> to meet Syrian families living in refugee camps.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;<a href="http://www.amazon.com/What-Money-Cant-Buy-Markets/dp/0374203032" target="_blank">Michael Sandel Is Wrong on Markets</a>&#8230;and (no surprise!) <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/opinion/sunday/friedman-this-column-is-not-sponsored-by-anyone.html" target="_blank">Tom Friedman is wrong</a>, too.&#8221; It&#8217;s too bad Richard Epstein never <a href="http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/117336" target="_blank">tells us what he really thinks</a>.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Data Matters: G-7 GDP growth since summer 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/15/data-matters-g-7-gdp-growth-since-summer-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/15/data-matters-g-7-gdp-growth-since-summer-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 23:44:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Data Matters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5893</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Here is the second installment in our new series Data Matters.</p>
<p>Following last week&#8217;s inaugural post of data from John Cogan, this week Edward Lazear, a ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/15/data-matters-g-7-gdp-growth-since-summer-2009/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here is the second installment in our new series Data Matters.</p>
<p>Following <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/data-matters-a-tale-of-two-budgets-obama-ryan/" target="_blank">last week&#8217;s inaugural post of data from John Cogan</a>, this week Edward Lazear, a Hoover Senior Fellow, Stanford Professor of Economics, and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, offers us a comparative assessment of U.S. economic growth since the summer of 2009. The chart shows average GDP growth in the G-7 countries, including the Q1 2012 preliminary figures.</p>
<p>Since we began to emerge from the economic wreckage of the Financial Crisis, the U.S. has experienced stronger economic growth than France, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. But economic growth in Germany and Canada has outstripped growth in the U.S. The pattern in the data is materially the same if we move our end point back to Q4 2011.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/LazearGraph1.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-5897" title="LazearGraph" src="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/LazearGraph1-1024x767.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="368" /></a></p>
<p>The potential for a stronger economic recovery demonstrated by two of our peers supports a reassessment of the U.S. government&#8217;s response to the Financial Crisis and economic policy actions over the last three years.</p>
<p>With Data Matters, we highlight data relevant to public policy that Hoover fellows are using in their research. We feature original data, data from another source that Hoover fellows are presenting in a new way, or data that fellows find helpful in shaping their own thinking.</p>
<p>Sign up for the Advancing a Free Society <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/feed/">RSS feed</a> to follow our data stream.</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/the-omnibus-19/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/the-omnibus-19/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 May 2012 00:23:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5890</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
In case you missed it: Brigadier General H. R. McMaster, a Hoover fellow, profiled in The Wall Street Journal&#8216;s Weekend Interview.



Thomas Sowell sits down with ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/the-omnibus-19/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>In case you missed it: Brigadier General H. R. McMaster, a Hoover fellow, profiled in <em>The Wall Street Journal</em>&#8216;s <a href="http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304451104577392281146871796.html?mg=reno64-wsj" target="_blank">Weekend Interview</a>.</li>
</ul>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Thomas Sowell <a href="http://www.hoover.org/multimedia/uncommon-knowledge/113726" target="_blank">sits down</a> with Peter Robinson on the occasion of the 2nd edition of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Intellectuals-Society-Thomas-Sowell/dp/046501948X" target="_blank"><em>Intellectuals and Society</em></a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Martin Anderson on &#8220;<a href="http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/7025" target="_blank">The Ten Causes of the Reagan Boom</a>.&#8221; We dusted it off because it&#8217;s still worth a careful read, especially in this election year.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Big Blue State&#8230;Big Red Numbers</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/big-blue-state-big-red-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/big-blue-state-big-red-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2012 20:08:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Whalen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 In Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5888</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Maybe someone forgot to carry the number . . .</p>
<p>Or, the state’s Department of Finance misplaced the decimal point in doing its budget math . ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/big-blue-state-big-red-numbers/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe someone forgot to carry the number . . .</p>
<p>Or, the state’s Department of Finance misplaced the decimal point in doing its budget math . . .</p>
<p>Or . . .</p>
<p>California’s economy really is this wretched, its governor wasn’t terribly honest with the revenue projections he offered back in January, and the feds and the courts are doing their darnedest to complicate matters.</p>
<p>Such is the very sorry state of the State of California, now that Gov. Jerry Brown has unveiled the state budget’s “May Revise” – one featuring a deficit sinkhole that’s spread from $9 billion to a walloping $16 billion in just four months’ time, plus the threat of additional spending cuts (<a href="http://www.dof.ca.gov/documents/2012-13_May_Revision.pdf" target="_blank">here’s a pdf</a> of the gory details).</p>
<p>Why the $7 billion accounting error?</p>
<p>Three culprits: (a) Brown over-estimated tax revenues <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-27/california-april-taxes-falling-short-as-brown-readies-budget" target="_blank">by $4.3 billion</a>; (b) the federal government and courts blocked <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2012/05/jerry-brown-california-budget-16-billion-deficit.html" target="_blank">$1.7 billion in cuts</a> California wanted to make; (c) the state’s on the hook to spend more on its schools thanks to a <a href="http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/California_Proposition_98,_Mandatory_Education_Spending_%281988%29" target="_blank">messy voter-approved law</a>.</p>
<p>Now that Brown’s updated the state’s finances, look for three California storylines in the weeks and months ahead:</p>
<p><span id="more-5888"></span></p>
<p>1)     <strong>Democrat-on-Democrat Violence</strong>. In Sacramento, it’s no so much what programs Gov. Brown would cut as it is what legislative Democrats are willing to accept. And a couple of Brown’s ideas are really doozies, from the left’s perspective: he’d have state employees work one less day a week (total of 38 hours, down from 40) and accept a 5% salary cut. That’s striking at the heart of a union that bankrolls Democratic candidacies (<a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/29/local/la-me-furloughs-20100729" target="_blank">unpaid furloughs</a> being a major bone of contention between state workers and then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger). The governor also would take away another $38 million from California’s UC system, at a time when UC officials say they need an extra $125 million to avoid 6% tuition hikes. What do disgruntled state workers and students have in common? Protests at the State Capitol, like <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501363_162-57391117/students-protest-education-cuts-at-capitol-rally/" target="_blank">this one</a> from back in March.</p>
<p>2)   <strong>Good Golly, Miss Molly</strong>. Here’s one way to look at Gov. Brown’s messaging from now through November: every dollar, he mentions, in threatened K-12 education cuts is a dollar’s worth of advertising for <a href="http://www.pe.com/local-news/topics/topics-education-headlines/20120428-politics-munger-touts-tax-plan-in-san-bernardino.ece" target="_blank">Molly Munger’s tax initiative</a>. Thus the emphasis, in Monday’s announcement, on budgetary hits non-el/hi. While Brown’s budget would reduce spending by $8.3 billion, K-12 spending would actually <em>increase</em> <a href="http://blog.sfgate.com/bottomline/2012/05/14/browns-revised-budget-k-12-spared-others-not-so-lucky/" target="_blank">by 16%</a> should voters approve Brown’s competing tax hike. With three tax ballot measures likely coming Californians’ way in November – Brown’s, Munger’s and <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2012/05/california-corporate-tax-change-ballot-measure-jerry-brown-tom-steyer.html" target="_blank">a third ballot prop</a> that would raise California’s corporate tax to fund the general budget and clean-energy projects – the governor has to walk the fine line of selling Californians on a concept they don’t like, while sounding like the most rational/reasonable person in the room.</p>
<p>3)  <strong>The Neverending Story</strong>. Both the title of Michael Ende’s fantasy opus (plus several <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Neverending_Story" target="_blank">film and television adaptations</a>) – and a tale of real-life woe in Sacramento. If you have some free time on your hands, try this Google search: “California budget crisis”. As you start sifting through the 44 million returns, you’ll find the following nuggets: a $12 billion surplus that morphed into a $38 billion deficit, <a href="http://library.cqpress.com/cqresearcher/document.php?id=cqresrre2003100300" target="_blank">a decade ago</a>; state debt that nearly tripled <a href="http://californiawatch.org/dailyreport/californias-debt-levels-soar-under-schwarzenegger-5408" target="_blank">under Arnold Schwarzenegger’s watch</a> (that was November 2003 to January 2011); a newly sworn-in Jerry Brown promising to get down to the brass tacks of solving <a href="http://www.npr.org/2011/01/10/132790964/in-california-new-governor-faces-budget-woes" target="_blank">a $28 billion deficit</a> (“no smoke and mirrors . . . no empty promises”); the many problems facing California’s uncertain financial future – shaky leadership, yo-yoing revenue; meddling federal and court dicta – neatly summed up in this <em>Economist</em> piece <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/1897472" target="_blank">from nine years ago</a>. In other words, it’s an old story. Good luck trying to sell Californians on the concept of <a href="http://www.calwatchdog.com/2011/04/04/what-happened-to-ca-armageddon/" target="_blank">a looming fiscal Armageddon</a>, in a state stuck in a deficit-rich Groundhog’s Day.</p>
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		<title>Obama, Romney, and Equality</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/obama-romney-and-equality/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/obama-romney-and-equality/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 May 2012 13:00:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>James Ceaser</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 In Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freedom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5886</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>If the test of a clever orator is the ability to sell two incompatible positions at the same time, President Obama must already rank as ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/14/obama-romney-and-equality/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the test of a clever orator is the ability to sell two incompatible positions at the same time, President Obama must already rank as one of the most adept rhetoricians in American history. The President steadfastly disavows any intent to foment division between economic classes, even as he works at every step to denounce the wealthy. At Osawatomie, Kansas last December, in what was billed as an historic speech on his governing philosophy, Obama insisted “this isn’t about class warfare,” and then went on immediately to attack &#8220;the breathtaking greed of a few&#8221; and &#8220;mortgage lenders that tricked families into buying homes.”</p>
<p>These lines were a throwback to the class rhetoric not only of Theodore Roosevelt, whose speech President Obama was channeling, but also of cousin Franklin, who fulminated in his First Inaugural against “the unscrupulous money changers [who] stand indicted in the court of public opinion.” These attacks are ostensibly not on the rich themselves, but on the undeserving rich. These poor souls were formerly characterized mostly by their practices and disposition (unscrupulousness and greed) and their occupation (finance). President Obama has added a political dimension: refusing to buckle to his idea of paying a “fair share.” The good or deserving rich, by contrast, are those like Warren Buffet, George Clooney, and Jon Corzine, who abhor the Bush tax cuts.</p>
<p>In the selection of Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee President Obama has found a target too rich to pass up.</p>
<p><span id="more-5886"></span></p>
<p>Last week marked the official start of a campaign that has been going non-stop for over a year. Addressing a large crowd at Virginia Commonwealth University, Obama directly measured his opponent, praising him as a “patriotic American” who had “run a large financial firm.” He continued: “But I think he has drawn the wrong lessons from that experience. He sincerely believes that if CEOs and investors like him make money, the rest of us will automatically do well as well.&#8221;</p>
<p>This sketch of Republican economic theory followed Michelle Obama’s introduction, which, without directly mentioning the investor opponent, invited the audience to draw a contrast between average folks, like herself and Barack, and the privileged, who know little of life’s difficulties: “Barack Obama, he is the son of a single mother who struggled to put herself through school and pay the bills. He’s the grandson of a woman who woke up before dawn every day to catch a bus to her job at a bank.”</p>
<p>Since the Obama campaign is assiduously courting the woman’s vote, especially the demographic of the unmarried, there was certainly no reason to mention that Barack had a grandfather too, and that the couple, who brought Obama up for a large part of his childhood, lived a comfortable life in Hawaii. It was more important to expand on his grandmother’s plight: “And even though Barack’s grandmother worked hard to help support her family &#8212; and she was good at her job &#8212; like so many women, she hit that glass ceiling.  And men no more qualified than she was were promoted up that ladder ahead of her.”</p>
<p>The contrast here is to Mitt Romney, who had the misfortune to be the son of an intact family and to enjoy the advantages of his parents’ considerable wealth. As for the previous generation, however, it is noteworthy that Mitt’s paternal grandparents, after leaving Mexico, initially had quite a tough time of it, rising very early in the morning, no doubt before dawn, to eke potatoes out of marginal farmland in Idaho.</p>
<p>Winning votes is the name of the game in a political campaign. What political value does the President hope to extract from his appeal to class antagonisms? Some have supposed that what is in play here is the classic ploy to stoke envy, the desire to take away what others have. The problem with this analysis is that most Americans are not much moved by this passion. A recent Gallup poll shows that almost two-thirds of Americans believe that the nation benefits from having a class of the rich, which is the same result as twelve years ago. Still, this tactic may work to fire up his base, as Democrats are split down the middle on this question. Where President Obama might score some additional points is among those who are angry (and this would include many Republicans) at the better off who were bailed out under the doctrine of  “too big to fail.”</p>
<p>Probably the most important support for these attacks on the rich comes from within the intellectual classes, where various ideas of fairness and social justice have been making inroads. The simplest idea is that the level of benefits that has now been voted into law represents an unalterable minimum, secured as a matter of every person’s rights. If this level cannot be sustained under current tax rates, the money must be gotten from somewhere, which means from the rich. Forget whether the numbers add up; for the moment, it is the point of fairness that is at issue. If the current level is the minimum, being already part of a collective pact, it is impossible to ask anyone to give up a benefit before taking more from the wealthy.</p>
<p>The exploding budget deficit has been used, paradoxically, to work in favor of this position. Just as conservatives once employed swelling deficits as an argument to strangle the beast and stop government spending, so liberals employ the huge overhang today to justify taxes on the wealthy. The deficit, it is rightly said, is a common liability. It is therefore not a matter of anyone being against the rich or of taking from some to give to others; it is a matter of paying for what we all owe.</p>
<p>These arguments about fairness are backed by a developing set of ideas about the collective ownership of the wealth of society. The notion is that property is not, as our economic theory and understandings of natural rights have held, owned chiefly by individuals; instead, property is in reality and by right ought to be owned by the collectivity. This idea goes much further than the simple point, accepted by all, that judges and legislators must define the contours of private property by rulings and laws that fix contracts and modes of ownership. It challenges the very concept of the primacy of private property. The popular spokesperson for this position has been Elizabeth Warren, a professor at Harvard Law School whom President Obama appointed as interim chief of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2010 and who is now running for Senator of Massachusetts, challenging Scott Brown. Professor Warren instructed her audience during the campaign:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><em>You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear: you moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn&#8217;t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did.</em></p>
<p>Because we live in an interdependent society, in which certain benefits are given to all, no one has a genuine primary claim to property. Differences in individual effort or ability (or differences in luck) are secondary, not primary factors. Morally speaking, property is public in the first instance, after which, perhaps, the law may decide on some residual basis to allow individuals to keep different amounts.</p>
<p>This logic can be taken a step further. It can be said that the collectivity has the primary claim to ownership not only because we all pay for essential services, but also because we happen, by chance, to belong to that collectivity itself. Michael Kinsley, the well-known political commentator, working now at Bloomberg, has argued this position:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><em>[E]very American selling anything benefits from doing so in the world&#8217;s richest market. An American doctor earns many times what the same doctor would earn in, say, India. This is not because he or she works many times harder. It&#8217;s not even primarily because our government doles out hundreds of billions for health care each year. It&#8217;s because we are a richer society, for reasons the American doctor had nothing to do with.</em></p>
<p>Where and when we happen to have been born—in what country and in what century—are the primary factors that determine wealth, an obvious observation that is somehow thought to undermine the claims of the industrious and the rational to individual property.  We stand on the backs of those in previous generations who built our economy and society, which in the Leftist view transfers ownership of property from the person to the collectivity, and perhaps beyond to the world community. Academics are enthralled by such sophistry, which translates into support for Occupy Wall Street. Of course, the same line of reasoning applies to their own work, as they can hardly claim primary title to their thoughts. They went to schools and universities paid for in part by the collectivity, and they live in a culture that has been created by past thinkers. Many academics acknowledge this truth, and the scrupulous among them pay their debt in the currency of the footnote. It’s a lot less expensive than a thirty-percent tax increase.</p>
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		<title>Purple States, Purple Reign for Romney?</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/11/purple-states-purple-reign-for-romney/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 May 2012 18:47:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Whalen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 In Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5885</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>As far as shock polls go, put this one somewhere between strong jolt and solid zap.</p>
<p>Rasmussen Reports’ daily tracking survey of the presidential race for ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/11/purple-states-purple-reign-for-romney/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As far as shock polls go, put this one somewhere between strong jolt and solid zap.</p>
<p>Rasmussen Reports’ <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll" target="_blank">daily tracking survey</a> of the presidential race for Friday has President Obama losing to Mitt Romney, 50%-43% (4% would vote for a third-party candidate; 3% are undecided).</p>
<p>It’s the first time Romney’s reached 50% in Rasmussen’s polls. It also comes on the heels of statistical evidence of <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index/rasmussen_consumer_index" target="_blank">eroding consumer confidence</a> and, of course, the big political news of the week – Obama not surprisingly but at long last coming out in favor of same-sex marriage.</p>
<p>A few words of caution about dancing around this May poll: it’s a long way to November.</p>
<p>Take the 2004 race, for example. As you’ll see <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/18610/trial-heat-bush-vs-kerry-likely-voters.aspx" target="_blank">here</a>, George W. Bush and John Kerry swapped the lead until October, when Bush finally achieved separation.</p>
<p>As for his father, <a href="http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/2012/05/obama-now-close-to-george-w-bushs.html" target="_blank">in May 1992</a> Gallup had the president race at George H.W. Bush 35%, Ross Perot 30%, and Bill Clinton at 29%. You probably know how that one turned out.</p>
<p><span id="more-5885"></span></p>
<p>Still, the Rasmussen poll is worth noting given another survey that came out before the gay-marriage hullabaloo: <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-05-04/swing-states-poll-obama-romney/54794106/1" target="_blank">a Gallup/<em>USA Today</em> swing-state poll</a> that showed Obama’s lead in 12 “battleground” states eroding from 51%-42% to a more precarious 47%-45% (the poll has Romney doubling his advantage with blue-collar white males – 58%-31% – <em>before</em> the President’s “coming out” party on Wednesday).</p>
<p>And it was eerily foreshadowed by <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/05/08/romneys_path_is_not_necessarily_narrow-full.html" target="_blank">this <em>Real Clear Politics</em> analysis</a> of how the fall contest may be friendlier terrain for Romney than appearances seem.</p>
<p>So how does the week’s big news further impact the swing states? Here’s <a href="http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76143.html" target="_blank">a good rundown</a>, courtesy of <em>Politico</em>, of Obama’s “seven states of grief over gay marriage” – campaign battlegrounds where the issue has proven to be politically radioactive.</p>
<p>In the meantime, don’t think of how President’s saying “I do” plays in Peoria. That city’s in Illinois, which is about as safe as a state can be for Obama these days.</p>
<p>Forget Peoria and think instead about Piqua (Ohio), Pensacola (Florida) and Poquoson (Virginia), not to mention Pahrump (Nevada), Pembroke (New Hampshire) and the aptly named Paradox (Colorado).</p>
<p>And with that in mind, it seems a good time to map out Romney’s quickest path to 270 electoral votes.</p>
<p>Here goes:</p>
<p>First, let’s start with a baseline. If the election were held tomorrow and the 50 states (and D.C.) divided the same as 2008, the final tally would read: Obama 358, Romney 180 (Obama losing 7 electoral votes to the new math of redistricting).</p>
<p>Now, pick up a red crayon and let the re-coloring begin.</p>
<p>Indiana and its 11 electorate votes return to the GOP column (Obama’s best-case scenario for repeating there is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/09/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE8481JD20120509" target="_blank">a very roundabout argument</a>), as does North Carolina and its 15 e.v.’s (the Democrats’ decision to hold their national convention <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/move-the-democratic-convention-from-charlotte-not-likely/" target="_blank">in Charlotte</a> likely to be the same nothing-burger, in terms of winning over a southern state, as the party’s shin-dig in Atlanta <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Democratic_National_Convention" target="_blank">back in 1988</a>).</p>
<p>So subtract 26 electoral votes from Obama and add them to Romney.</p>
<p>New tally: Obama 332, Romney 206.</p>
<p>Now, add Virginia and its 13 electoral votes to the Republican camp (as <a href="http://www.startribune.com/printarticle/?id=150111525" target="_blank">Karl Rove does</a>).</p>
<p>New tally: Obama 319, Romney 219.</p>
<p>The historic parallel: the 1960 presidential election, which featured a razor-thin popular vote (difference of 120,000 votes nationwide) by a wider electoral count (Kennedy 303, Nixon 219, Harry Byrd 15).</p>
<p>Back to 2012: here’s where the election does or doesn’t pivot for Romney: Ohio and Florida (a combined 47 electoral votes).</p>
<p>Give both “must-have’s” to Romney and he’s at 266 electoral votes. Which means: just one more state and the White House changes hands.</p>
<p>(Btw, a 269-all tie <a href="http://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?p=18351" target="_blank">is entirely possible</a>).</p>
<p>Now, a few other scenarios that hopefully won’t leave you too dizzy.</p>
<p>Let’s say Romney gets Florida and Ohio, but comes up short in Virginia. That leaves him at 253 electoral votes, 17 shy of the prize.</p>
<p>Michigan (16) or Wisconsin (10) alone wouldn’t do the job. However, Pennsylvania (20) would. As would a trifecta of Colorado (9), Nevada (6) and New Hampshire (4).</p>
<p>If Romney can carry Virginia and Florida, but not Ohio, he’s down to 248 electoral votes.</p>
<p>If he loses two of three, he’s looking at an electoral count of 235 (Virginia and Ohio going blue), 224 (Obama carrying Virginia and Florida) or 219 (Ohio and Florida going Democratic).</p>
<p>But that’s presuming Obama can sweep his way to victory through the Upper Midwest, where life just got complicated thanks to his gay marriage “conversion”. Although the issue’s been hotly debated in <a href="http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20120509/NEWS0106/305090139/Obama-gay-marriage-stance-will-echo-Ohio" target="_blank">Ohio</a> and <a href="http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/politiscope/madison-politiscope-wisconsin-shows-why-obama-s-gay-marriage-move/article_0dec3ce2-9a1e-11e1-8def-0019bb2963f4.html" target="_blank">Wisconsin</a>, there is the question of which party’s base will find itself <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/10/obama-gay-marriage-swing-states_n_1508106.html" target="_blank">more energized</a> come November (the impact of gay marriage on the crucial 2004 vote in Ohio <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/the-facts-gay-marriage-didnt-tilt-2004-election/" target="_blank">a revisited subject</a> these days).</p>
<p>Confused by all of this? Don’t be. American presidential math dictates that a dozen unsettled states outweigh three-dozen others that offer far more predictable outcomes.</p>
<p>They’re purple states, as they combine elements of political red and blue. Then again, purple is a color <a href="http://www.colorcombos.com/color-purple-article.html" target="_blank">long associated</a> with mystery and nobility.</p>
<p>And, at the moment, these purple states amount to a royal headache for the incumbent president.</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/10/the-omnibus-18/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 May 2012 00:41:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[
Professor Daniel Drazner of the Fletcher School joined George P. Shultz, Condoleezza Rice, Admiral Gary Roughead (USN &#8211; Ret.), and former U.S. Ambassador to China ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/10/the-omnibus-18/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>Professor Daniel Drazner of the Fletcher School joined George P. Shultz, Condoleezza Rice, Admiral Gary Roughead (USN &#8211; Ret.), and former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, among others, for a day-long conversation &#8220;<a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/116546" target="_blank">China’s Evolving Military and the Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy</a>.&#8221; He took to the pages of <em>ForeignPolicy</em>.com to share &#8220;<a href="http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/09/what_i_learned_about_sino_americal_relations_yesterday" target="_blank">What I learned about Sino-American relations yesterday</a> [at the Hoover Institution].&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Let the General election begin! Bill Whalen <a href="http://www.kqed.org/a/kqednews/RN201205091730/a" target="_blank">analyzes the politics of the President&#8217;s new position on gay marriage</a> on KQED&#8217;s (San Francisco public radio) <em>Forum with Michael Krasny</em>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Hoover fellows take over the <em>WSJ</em>&#8216;s Op-Ed page and have a few things to say about European political economy &#8211; Robert J. Barro <a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/116981" target="_blank">here</a> and Josef Joffe <a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/116976" target="_blank">here</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Other happenings on the Continent &#8211; a look at <a href="http://paulgregorysblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/buy-shares-of-russian-state-companies.html" target="_blank">the critical problems of Russian state companies</a> by economist and Soviet &amp; Russian specialist Paul Gregory.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Ying Ma <a href="http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/116911" target="_blank">on the saga of another Chinese dissident</a>, writer Yu Jie, who refers to himself as &#8220;a nerd who stutters,&#8221; and the glimpse his story provides into the Chinese authoritarian state.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>And hearty congratulations to Hoover Senior Fellow John Taylor, who <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/09/idUS188906+09-May-2012+BW20120509" target="_blank">won the Hayek Award</a> for his book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/First-Principles-Restoring-Americas-Prosperity/dp/0393073394" target="_blank"><em>First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring American Prosperity</em></a>.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Caveat Inauguror</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/10/caveat-inauguror/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/10/caveat-inauguror/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 May 2012 17:10:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kori Schake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Intl Relations]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5880</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The government of China has just given yet another reason investors should be wary of operating in the Chinese market.  The Chinese Ministry of Finance ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/10/caveat-inauguror/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The government of China has just given yet another reason investors should be wary of operating in the Chinese market.  The Chinese Ministry of Finance has announced regulations, requiring western auditing firms to give control to local partners by the end of 2012, effectively ending the independence of firms operating in the Chinese market.</p>
<p>This comes on the heels of several high-profile cases of accounting fraud in recent years, and the Securities and Exchange Commission charging accounting firm Deloitte for refusing to hand over documents in a fraud case of a Chinese firm listed in the U.S. (Deloitte claims it would violate Chinese law to do so).  The Finance Ministry’s action will be read as validating concerns about the opaque and often corrupt practices of Chinese firms.</p>
<p>Given the collusion of Chinese government and business, both through state-owned firms and politicized decisions on everything from bank lending to police investigations, the regulatory take-over of auditing firms bodes ill for investors getting reliable information on the business practices of companies in which they take an interest.</p>
<p>Academics and politicians often marvel at what French Finance Minister (and later President) Valery Giscard d’Estaing called the “exorbitant privilege” that accrues to the United States by the U.S. dollar being the world’s major holding currency.  And it is a privilege, often undeserved by us, as now, when our government proves unwilling to make sensible choices about economic fundamentals such as debt reduction.  But it merits remembering that American dominance is not alone a function of American choices.  It also results from the choices of others.</p>
<p>For all the talk of a rising China, they are making quite a number of choices that will keep the dollar a safe harbor of value and call into question the reliability of information so important to encourage investment.  China may not rise either so far or so fast as predicted unless they reform the crony authoritarianism that looks to be the hallmark of their economic model.</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/09/the-omnibus-17/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/09/the-omnibus-17/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 May 2012 22:34:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5878</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Where did all the workers go? Senior Fellow and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors Edward Lazear on CNBC.


New data on the effect ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/09/the-omnibus-17/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>Where did all the workers go? Senior Fellow and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000088402&amp;play=1#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDg4NDAyIiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiK3h4SVVRWndJK29GOWsyRFdMV2RoQT09IiwidlRhYiI6ImluZm8iLCJ2UGFnZSI6MSwiZ05hdiI6WyLCoExhdGVzdCBWaWRlbyJdLCJnU2VjdCI6IkFMTCIsImdQYWdlIjoiMSIsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9" target="_blank">Edward Lazear on CNBC</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.thumbtack.com/survey" target="_blank">New data</a> on the effect of regulations on business, highlighted by <a href="http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/05/regulation_matt.html" target="_blank">David Henderson at EconLog</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>True blue California calls out the Obama administration on its waiver policy for No Child Left Behind &#8211; <a href="http://educationnext.org/a-states%E2%80%99-rights-insurrection-led-by%E2%80%A6california/" target="_blank">read Michael Petrilli at the EducationNext blog</a>.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Obama, Somewhere Over the Rainbow</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/09/obama-somewhere-over-the-rainbow/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/09/obama-somewhere-over-the-rainbow/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 May 2012 21:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Whalen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 In Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Ordinarily, there wouldn’t be much to this column – at least, as far as North Carolina is concerned.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, Tar Heel voters approved a ballot ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/09/obama-somewhere-over-the-rainbow/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ordinarily, there wouldn’t be much to this column – at least, as far as North Carolina is concerned.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, Tar Heel voters approved a ballot measure that <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/05/08/2052643/marriage-amendment-latest-results.html" target="_blank">added a marriage amendment</a> to its constitution. While North Carolina already bans same-sex marriage, the vote likely means civil unions and other forms of domestic partnership likely will go unrecognized as well.</p>
<p>That North Carolina would choose to do this isn’t earth-shattering news. Thirty other states have opted for the same policy course.</p>
<p>Likewise, it’s not a surprise that the measure received about 60% of the vote in Tuesday’s light-turnout primary.</p>
<p>For all the talk of North Carolina representing a purplish “New South” (Obama carried it <a href="http://www.270towin.com/states/North_Carolina" target="_blank">by 14,000 votes</a> out of 4.3 million cast in 2008), it’s still a socially conservative state. The moral of this ballot fight: Chelsea Clinton (she <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/03/1088520/-Chelsea-Clinton-pens-letter-opposing-North-Carolina-s-Amendment-One" target="_blank">wrote a letter</a> denouncing the ballot measure) is no match, on his home turf, for the Rev. Billy Graham (who appeared in <a href="http://www.towleroad.com/2012/05/heres-evangelist-billy-grahams-full-page-ad-blasting-gay-marriage-running-in-14-north-carolina-newsp.html" target="_blank">a signed newspaper ad</a> statewide supporting Amendment One).</p>
<p>So much for politics as usual.</p>
<p><span id="more-5876"></span></p>
<p>Now, on to something else that’s become <em>de rigueur</em> for this campaign: the president’s campaign seemingly stumbling into trouble – and the uneasy feeling that said pratfall was more staged than accidental.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/susan-milligan/2012/05/08/joe-bidens-gay-marriage-comment-was-no-gaffe" target="_blank">Conspiracy buffs</a> will long debate why Vice President Biden and, a day later, Education Secretary Arnie Duncan seemingly went off message when each <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/cabinet-secretaries-silent-biden-duncan-plug-gay-marriage/story?id=16305781#.T6qvPO2hDlI" target="_blank">went out of their way</a> to espouse their support for gay marriage.</p>
<p>And why, later the same week, President Obama “came out”, as it were, ending his supposed mental anguish by pronouncing his support for gay marriage – something that was expected to occur in the political safe haven of a second term (or forced retirement, whichever comes first).</p>
<p>The reason for my cynicism: (a) Obama’s <a href="http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/Profiles/President/US/Barack_Obama/Views/Gay_Marriage/" target="_blank">back-and-forth</a> over the years seemed more about campaign landscapes than intellectual process; (b) the White House pre-signaled that the President would address gay marriage in <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQGMTPab9GQ" target="_blank">his ABC News interview</a>, which reeks of build-up and choreography.</p>
<p>So if you want to play along, feel free to choose which of these factors accelerated the President’s timetable:</p>
<ol>
<li>Trying to reanimate <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/obama-gay-marriage-stance-comes-under-scrutiny-from-gay-rights-advocates/2012/05/08/gIQAPRVeAU_story.html" target="_blank">a disappointed voting bloc</a> – disappointed in the sense that Obama has been so measured on an issue that, to the LGBT community, is a matter of equal rights?</li>
<li>Trying to ensure the Obama money machine keeps humming along (some disgruntled gay and progressive donors reportedly <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/top-obama-donors-witholding-money-over-executive-order-punt/2012/05/07/gIQAPKsl8T_blog.html" target="_blank">have been loath to give</a> to the Obama super-PAC)?</li>
<li>Trying to drive a wedge between Mitt Romney and social conservatives (the likely Republican nominee <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/romneys-view-on-gay-marriage-not-evolving/" target="_blank">is for some domestic partnership benefits</a>, but dead-set against same-sex marriage)?</li>
<li>Trying to show that the Barack Obama, the man, <a href="http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/08/11600533-is-obamas-gay-marriage-stance-all-about-suburban-voters?lite" target="_blank">is not unlike a lot of suburban voters</a> who likewise are “evolving” on the concept?</li>
<li>Fear of being booed and heckled by George Clooney &amp; co. at Thursday’s <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/09/us-obama-clooney-idUSBRE84816020120509" target="_blank">mega-millions fundraiser</a> in Los Angeles?</li>
</ol>
<p>For argument’s sake, I’ll go with the second and penultimate points: money and votes are what drive the presidential re-elect. Let’s see if the President’s rainbow embrace brings a big haul of campaign green, and if voters credit him for ditching what was becoming a comically bad inability to step up to the plate and offer an honest opinion on the matter (as parodied in <a href="http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-blasts-obamas-evasive-stance-on-gay-marriage,28146/" target="_blank">this <em>Onion</em> piece</a>, which has Obama blasting himself for his own evasiveness).</p>
<p>And so the President survives the week. Now, the question of what to do later this summer, when his fellow Democrats gather at their party’s national convention in Charlotte?</p>
<p>Does the party take the next step – make support of same-sex marriage a plank in the party’s platform (as <a href="http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/05/03/gay-marriage-in-democrats-platform-chairs/" target="_blank">11 state chairs advocate</a>)? If so, what happens to the party’s fortunes in more culturally conservative parts of America (remember: this is a President who <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jWQ-cJ-KrSa-U01TruFH5lBTZUQg?docId=eba119f171fb4132a6f875cf8d29a1de" target="_blank">just lost 4 out of every 10 votes in West Virginia’s Democratic primary</a> to a federal inmate who listed himself as a “Rastafarian-Christian” and his career as “Founder, World Peace Through Musical Communications Skills”.</p>
<p>A realist will point out that West Virginia, a state Obama <a href="http://www.270towin.com/states/West_Virginia" target="_blank">lost by 13%</a> in 2008, isn’t on the President’s radar screen.</p>
<p>But a cynic will point out that there are two forms of political evolution – those genuine and those born of circumstance.</p>
<p>Hence the phrase: election-year conversion.</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/the-omnibus-16/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/the-omnibus-16/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2012 22:51:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Today, John Taylor testified before the House Domestic Monetary Policy subcommittee during hearings on six proposed bills to reform the Fed. His written testimony. Also ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/the-omnibus-16/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>Today, John Taylor testified before the House Domestic Monetary Policy subcommittee during hearings on six proposed bills to reform the Fed. <a href="http://financialservices.house.gov/Calendar/EventSingle.aspx?EventID=293810" target="_blank">His written testimony</a>. Also Taylor&#8217;s thoughts about the hearings <a href="http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/diverse-and-wide-open-hearing-on-fed.html" target="_blank">at his blog Economics One</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Behind the curtain at Massachusetts schools, which are lauded as some of the finest in the nation. Paul Peterson <a href="http://educationnext.org/dumbing-down-the-gpa-it%E2%80%99s-the-unsophisticated-bright-kid-who-suffers/" target="_blank">on why all is not as it seems</a> &#8211; and how bright kids suffer.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>How will the American people sum up the economy over the last two years? First, ask how the media will sum it up. Victor Davis Hanson over at <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/299241/what-will-we-call-2011-or-2012-victor-davis-hanson#" target="_blank">National Review Online&#8217;s The Corner</a>.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Data Matters: A Tale of Two Budgets &#8211; Obama &amp; Ryan</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/data-matters-a-tale-of-two-budgets-obama-ryan/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/data-matters-a-tale-of-two-budgets-obama-ryan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2012 22:41:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Data Matters]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5872</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Today, we add a new weekly feature to Advancing a Free Society. Each week, usually on a Monday, we will highlight data relevant to public ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/data-matters-a-tale-of-two-budgets-obama-ryan/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today, we add a new weekly feature to Advancing a Free Society. Each week, usually on a Monday, we will highlight data relevant to public policy that Hoover fellows are using in their research.</p>
<p>Our inaugural data post is a graph generated by John F. Cogan, the Leonard and Shirley Ely Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a professor in the Public Policy Program at Stanford University. The graph shows federal government outlays as a percent of GDP from 1994 to 2022. The graph presents historical outlays and the striking contrast between two different future scenarios: one that follows the Obama administration&#8217;s budget and the other that follows the budget path that would be created under Paul Ryan&#8217;s plan.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/ObamaRyan.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-5873" title="ObamaRyan" src="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/ObamaRyan.jpg" alt="" width="432" height="324" /></a></p>
<p>Sign up for the Advancing a Free Society <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/feed/">RSS feed</a> to follow our data stream.</p>
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		<title>Pennsylvania Governor names Hoover&#8217;s Kiron Skinner to Advisory Commission</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/pennsylvania-governor-names-hoovers-kiron-skinner-to-advisory-commission/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/pennsylvania-governor-names-hoovers-kiron-skinner-to-advisory-commission/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 May 2012 21:51:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5869</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>HARRISBURG, Pa., May 7, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ &#8211; In recognition of Pennsylvania&#8217;s more than 1.4 million African American citizens, Governor Tom Corbett today named distinguished community leaders ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/08/pennsylvania-governor-names-hoovers-kiron-skinner-to-advisory-commission/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>HARRISBURG, Pa., May 7, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ &#8211; In recognition of Pennsylvania&#8217;s more than 1.4 million African American citizens, Governor Tom Corbett today named distinguished community leaders to serve on the Governor&#8217;s Advisory Commission on African American Affairs.</p>
<p>&#8220;The history of African Americans in Pennsylvania reflects a diverse and unique blend of cultural, social and economic influences which have had and continue to have a beneficial impact on life in the commonwealth,&#8221; Corbett said.</p>
<p>The commission advises and makes recommendations to the governor on policies, procedures, legislation, and regulations that affect the African American community. It works to articulate and address the unique needs and issues of concerns of the African American community.</p>
<p>The following individuals have been named as commission members:</p>
<p>Otto Banks, Dauphin County<br />
Wayne Barnett, Philadelphia County<br />
Rev. James Breese, Luzerne County<br />
Fred Clark, Dauphin County<br />
Elizabeth Dennis, Allegheny County<br />
Evan Frazier, Allegheny County<br />
Maurice Goodman, Philadelphia County<br />
Rev. Terrence Griffith, Philadelphia County<br />
Cathy Hardaway, Lackawanna County<br />
Rodney Little, Philadelphia County<br />
Sara Lomax Reese, Montgomery County<br />
Marcia Perry, Dauphin County<br />
Rev. Michael Robinson, Delaware County<br />
Dr. Kiron Skinner, Allegheny County<br />
Ronald Steele, Erie County<br />
Karen Stokes, Philadelphia County (Chair)<br />
Bishop A.E. Sullivan Jr., Dauphin County<br />
Floyd Titus, Allegheny County</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/07/the-omnibus-15/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/07/the-omnibus-15/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 May 2012 22:00:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5865</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
On the heels of Friday&#8217;s weak jobs numbers, Gary Becker writes about why the recovery in employment in the U.S. has been so slow.


Europe&#8217;s austerity ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/07/the-omnibus-15/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>On the heels of <a href="http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm" target="_blank">Friday&#8217;s weak jobs numbers</a>, Gary Becker writes about <a href="http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/2012/05/why-has-the-recovery-in-employment-in-the-us-been-so-slow-becker.html" target="_blank">why the recovery in employment in the U.S. has been so slow</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Europe&#8217;s austerity experiment has failed, <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2012/05/sarkos-defeat-is-good-and-bad-news-for-obama.html" target="_blank">according to John Cassidy</a> at <em>The New Yorker</em>. Over at Cafe Hayek, <a href="http://cafehayek.com/2012/05/the-austerity-experiment.html" target="_blank">Russ Roberts responds</a> that the Europeans haven&#8217;t even stepped up the lab bench.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Mark Harrison on <a href="http://blogs.warwick.ac.uk/markharrison/entry/taxing_the_rich/" target="_blank">the two conflicting purposes of taxation</a> in a democracy.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>And in today&#8217;s <em>Wall Street Journal</em>, <a href="http://www.hoover.org/news/daily-report/116621" target="_blank">Peter Berkowitz assigns</a> some <a href="http://thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fedpapers.html" target="_blank">required reading</a>.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/03/the-omnibus-14/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/03/the-omnibus-14/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 May 2012 22:52:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5863</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
Thomas Henriksen takes the defense policy, Bill Whalen does the domestic political analysis of the President&#8217;s address to the nation from Afghanistan.


Also in Afghanistan this ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/03/the-omnibus-14/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>Thomas Henriksen <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/2/obamas-bipolar-approach-to-terrorism-716383339/" target="_blank">takes the defense policy</a>, Bill Whalen does the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/2/obamas-osama-optics/" target="_blank">domestic political analysis</a> of the <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/05/01/remarks-president-obama-address-nation-afghanistan" target="_blank">President&#8217;s address to the nation from Afghanistan</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Also in Afghanistan this week &#8211; make that every week &#8211; American drones. Victor Davis Hanson asks: &#8220;<a href="http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/116356" target="_blank">Have drones killed the traditional American way of war?</a>&#8220;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>On the eve of new jobs numbers, John Taylor <a href="http://johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/debate-and-evidence-on-weak-recovery.html" target="_blank">highlights three graphs</a> of data on the slow recovery. Spoiler alert: &#8220;History is not on the side of those who blame the preceeding deep recession and financial crisis.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Omnibus</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/02/the-omnibus-13/</link>
		<comments>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/02/the-omnibus-13/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 23:00:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Editor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/?p=5860</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[
&#8220;[W]omen typically are in charge of health care decisions for their families in America. These choices inarguably will be restricted in at least four major ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/02/the-omnibus-13/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<ul>
<li>&#8220;[W]omen typically are in charge of health care decisions for their families in America. These choices inarguably will be <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/may/1/obama-policies-threaten-the-most-vulnerable/" target="_blank">restricted in at least four major ways</a> under Obamacare.&#8221; Read Dr. Scott Atlas in <em>The Washington Times</em>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>&#8220;About 10 months ago, more than 400 &#8216;regular&#8217; Californians from around the state gathered for a weekend in Torrance to discuss major issues facing California. It was the first-ever California Deliberative Poll, sponsored by reformers, academics and foundations. A random sample of Californians sat down, discussed and analyzed some important matters. It was a remarkable experience in honest-to-goodness democracy.&#8221; In <em>The Sacramento Bee</em>, Hoover&#8217;s David Davenport and Lenny Mendonca of California Forward report on <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/2012/05/02/4458053/californians-want-to-change-initiative.html" target="_blank">what these Californians say they want done</a> to the initiative process.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Looking for worthwhile distractions as you wait for the Supreme Court to issue its health care law ruling? Clint Bolick&#8217;s new book <a href="http://www.hooverpress.org/productdetails.cfm?PC=1574" target="_blank"><em>Two-Fer: Electing a President and a Supreme Court</em></a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Beyond Bo Xilai &#8212; The new issue of <a href="http://www.hoover.org/publications/china-leadership-monitor" target="_blank"><em>The China Leadership Monitor</em></a> has been released.</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>California&#8217;s Ballot Ballet &#8211; Danse Macabre</title>
		<link>http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/02/californias-ballot-ballet-danse-macabre/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 21:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bill Whalen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012 In Perspective]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXCLUSIVE]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Here are two developments out of Sacramento that should concern you if (a) you worry about the plight of the state’s finances, and (b) you ... <a href="http://www.advancingafreesociety.org/2012/05/02/californias-ballot-ballet-danse-macabre/"><i>continue reading</i></a>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are two developments out of Sacramento that should concern you if (a) you worry about the plight of the state’s finances, and (b) you fret over how the state’s elected leaders can make a bad situation worse.</p>
<p>First, the financial health – a state budget that’s reached “code red”, as in a rising tide of red ink.</p>
<p>According to California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office, the state’s General Fund is now <a href="http://www.lao.ca.gov/laoapp/budgetlist/PublicSearch.aspx?Yr=2012&amp;KeyCol=592" target="_blank">$3 billion shy</a> of the year-to-date target. Unless that changes, it’ll mean more nasty budget cuts this summer regardless of the outcome of Gov. Jerry Brown’s tax-hike ballot proposition.</p>
<p>This latest bad news <a href="http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/05/ratings-agency-raises-concerns-about-california-budget.html" target="_blank">didn’t go unnoticed</a> by Standard &amp; Poor’s, which already gives the Golden State a nation’s-worst A- minus rating. S&amp;P likely won’t downgrade California any further (for now), but it is concerned about Sacramento’s direction.</p>
<p>Which takes us to the second reason to reach for the Tums: Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg’s plan to amend California’s initiative process.</p>
<p>Steinberg’s fix, introduced in <a href="http://sd06.senate.ca.gov/sites/sd06.senate.ca.gov/files/2012-04-19%20Steinberg%20Sac%20Press%20Club%20speech%20transcript_0.pdf" target="_blank">this speech</a> to the Sacramento Press Club:</p>
<p>1)  Allow the Legislature to place initiatives on the ballot via a simple-majority vote (at present, a two-thirds majority is required – Steinberg wouldn’t change that for constitutional amendments);</p>
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<p>2)  Allow initiative proponents to negotiate with the governor and Legislature – either to amend the ballot measure, or pass a law without the hassle of going to the polls.</p>
<p>3)  Free up the Legislature to amend or repeal an initiative once it’s been on the books for 10 years.</p>
<p>So how would all of this make a “bad” situation worse? Let’s take them, in order:</p>
<p>1)  <strong>Removing the Two-Thirds Requirement</strong>. The argument here is the Legislature, like the initiative process itself, reflects <em>vox populi</em> – if Democratic lawmakers want to place a tax hike on the ballot, they’re simply reflecting a majority of Californians’ wishes as they constitute an overwhelming majority of the Legislature.  The problem with this: the Legislature doesn’t reflect California either in its polarized ideology deep or its partisan makeup (both chambers are nearly two-thirds Democratic, yet Democrats account for <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/04/20/state/n173309D72.DTL" target="_blank">only 43.5% of all registered voters</a>). And it gives the Dems an easy out for avoiding spending cuts. Like 2010’s Proposition 25, which changed approval of the budget approval from a two-thirds to a simple majority (translation: <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/2012/02/03/4235852/dan-walters-california-democrats.html" target="_blank">majority power play</a>), this is simply another means of preventing minority Republicans from throwing up a roadblock to the majority’s plans. Clever politics by the Senate Democratic leader, but misleading advertising.</p>
<p>2)  <strong>Amending Ballot Measures</strong>. It sounds like meddling, but Steinberg has a legitimate gripe. Take, for example, Proposition 71 – California’s stem-cell research initiative – which, with a little fine-tuning (and <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/12/08/MNGPBA8DPN1.DTL&amp;ao=all" target="_blank">some rewriting</a>), perhaps could have avoided a legal challenge that kept the measure tied up in legal knots <a href="http://classic.the-scientist.com/news/display/23342/" target="_blank">for the better part of 18 months</a>. The so-called “indirect initiative process” <a href="http://www.iandrinstitute.org/New%20IRI%20Website%20Info/I&amp;R%20Research%20and%20History/I&amp;R%20Studies/CA%20Commission%20-%20Final%20I&amp;R%20Report%20IRI.pdf" target="_blank">was proposed a decade ago</a> by a bipartisan commission on California initiative reform, in part as a means of reducing initiative clutter (now a bigger concern for California, with all ballot props <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/2011/10/19/3988095/is-brown-right-should-state-limit.html" target="_blank">relegated to the November ballot</a>).</p>
<p>3)  <strong>The 10-Year Review</strong>. A red flag – say, the size of one of those gigantic banners they roll <a href="http://stormhighway.com/stlouisphotos/cardinals/worldseries/game1j.shtml" target="_blank">out at the World Series</a>. Give liberal lawmakers a chance to undo recent ballot history, and you can say bye-bye to some if not all of the following: <a href="http://vote96.sos.ca.gov/bp/209text.htm" target="_blank">Prop 209</a> (university racial quotas); <a href="http://primary98.sos.ca.gov/VoterGuide/Propositions/227text.htm" target="_blank">Prop 227</a> (bilingual education) – and the bane of the left’s existence in Sacramento, the landmark <a href="http://www.hjta.org/propositions/proposition-13/original-proposition-13" target="_blank">Proposition 13</a>.</p>
<p>The fact is: California lawmakers have a love-hate relationship with the initiative process, Sen. Steinberg being no exception. He bemoans having his hands tied by ballot box budgeting (the latest installment: this fall’s <a href="http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/2012/04/california-cancer-measure-means-more-flawed-ballot-box-budgeting/554846" target="_blank">Proposition 29</a>, which would tax tobacco but dictates that the money be spent on cancer research). Yet Steinberg was the author of 2004’s <a href="http://www.dmh.ca.gov/Prop_63/mhsa/" target="_blank">Prop 63</a>, which imposed a 1% tax on millionaires and earmarked the revenue for mental-health programs.</p>
<p>Reform of California’s initiative is long overdue – a consensus opinion, save for those folks who find signature-gathering to be <a href="http://www.nbcsandiego.com/blogs/prop-zero/Circulators-Petition-Signatures-Gathering-149229365.html" target="_blank">a lucrative industry</a> in the Golden State’s otherwise languid economy (California’s “recovery” running <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/2012/05/02/4458280/uop-states-recovery-to-remain.html" target="_blank">about three years’ behind</a> the rest of the nation).</p>
<p>But giving the Legislature a greater say in what makes it way to the ballot? Or, in Steinberg’s case, making it easier to dump tax increases on the ballot and look for voter-stamped bailout, as opposed to tackling the chronic deficit as not just only revenue but a <em>spending</em> problem? And giving his party a means of killing initiatives that don’t pass its p.c. litmus test?</p>
<p>Buyers beware.</p>
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