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  • Carson Bruno

     

    This marks the first in a regular series examining legislation introduced by California lawmakers.

     

    At first glance, minimum wage laws are popular concepts.  A recent Reason-Rupe poll found that 66% of Americans favor President Obama’s proposed 24% increase in the federal minimum wage to $9.00 per hour.  This matches the sentiment found in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll (58% in favor) and a Pew Research Center/USA Today poll (70% in favor).  However, if educated about the effects of such policies, the public’s opinions shift; based on the Reason-Rupe poll (which asked a follow-up question stating one negative unintended consequence of minimum wage laws: employer layoffs), approval of a wage increase dropped to 37%.

    In the “Spotlight” is AB 10, authored by Democratic Assemblyman Luis Alejo, which aims to increase California’s $8.00 per hour minimum wage.  The bill has four stages:

    1) Increase the minimum wage 3% on January 1, 2014 to $8.25;

    2) Increase it by 6% on January 1, 2015 to $8.75;

    3) Increase it again by 6% to $9.25 on January 1, 2016, and;

    4) Starting on January 1, 2017 (and every January 1st thereafter), increase the minimum wage by the previous year’s California Consumer Price Index.

    AB 10 would allow the California Industrial Welfare Commission to adjust the annual increase more than the California CPI, but would preclude it from decreasing (or increasing) the minimum wage in deflationary years.

    Minimum wage laws all have the same intended goal: to reduce poverty. Proponents theorize that minimum wage increases will also boost employee morale thereby increasing business efficiency.  However, despite their initial popularity, such policies continue to fall short.

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  • Bill Whalen

     

    In a year in which Washington will be dominated by loose talk of federal largesse and limitations, congressional Republicans face an image challenge: how best to argue the case for budgetary austerity without coming across as . . . well, too austere.

    To answer that question, let’s turn to another contact sport – football – and the curious case of Manti Te’o, the former Notre Dame linebacker.

    As recently as early January, Te’o was in a most enviable position as far as his professional stock stood. In addition to leading his team to an undefeated regular season and a spot in the national title game, the linebacker had endured an incredible tale of personal woe – the death of his grandmother, followed a day later by the passing of his leukemia-stricken girlfriend. Te’o not only played through his grief, but took his game to a higher level – so high that NFL scouts rated him a top-ten pick in next month’s draft. With the help of Notre Dame’s publicity machine, Te’o was the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, a rarity for a defensive player.

    And then it all came crashing down.

    The girlfriend, whom the media had turned into this generation’s George Gipp, never really existed. The “relationship” was in fact an Internet hoax (“catfishing”, it’s called), forcing Te’o to answer a lot of awkward questions about his character and gullibility. Add the personal drama to his underwhelming performances on the field in the championship game and off the field at the draft combine, and Te’o is now projected as a mid-to-late first-round pick at best.

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  • Editor

     

    Why has the current recovery from the Great Recession been so mediocre? Ed Leamer of UCLA points out that the last three recessions have all had mediocre recoveries of both output and employment. His explanation is that changes in the manufacturing sector have changed the pattern of layoffs, recalls and hiring during recessions and recoveries. The conversation concludes with a discussion of the forces driving the changes in the labor market and the implications for manufacturing.

    1) Why the last three recessions all look different (1:44)
    2) Employment growth for last eight recessions (4:12)
    3) Why have the last three recessions been so different? (6:13)
    4) The jobs cycle in manufacturing (8:52)
    5) Excess capacity in construction has created a lag (10:33)
    6) Manufacturing output versus manufacturing employment (11:14)
    7) What’s the solution to the downturn? (12:20)

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  • Bill Whalen

     

    On Tuesday, California’s largest city went to the polls to narrow choices for its next mayor. What did that vote tell us about the state of campaigns in the Golden State?

    It’s not good.

    Here are three takeaways from the Los Angeles mayoral primary:

    1)   The Big Chill. The weather in Los Angeles this week has been unseasonably cool; voter interest was sub-Arctic. Sure, history will be made in L.A. come May 21, when voters choose from the two Democrats who survived Tuesday’s first round of voting. City Controller Wendy Greuel would be the city’s first woman mayor. City Councilman Eric Garcetti would be the city’s first Jewish elected mayor (Garcetti’s mother is Jewish; his father, a former county district attorney, is of Mexican and Italian decent). That said, these weren’t scintillating choices in a town where charm and personality go a long way. Garcetti was president of the city council for six year. Greuel cut her political teeth working for former Mayor Tom Bradley. Solid resumes, yes, but dull. Add to the mix another candidate, Councilwoman Jan Perry, who was a product of the political machine and the choice for Angelenos wasn’t scintillating. Thus a paltry turnout of only 16%. In a city and county of 4.7 million registered voters, not a single mayoral candidate was able to top 100,000 votes. The good news: there is competition in Los Angeles at this time of the year that’s fraught with intrigue, drama and media attention. Unfortunately, it’s the Oscars – not city politics.

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  • Peter Berkowitz

     

    As Barack Obama begins his second term as president of the United States, the nation confronts a range of formidable challenges at the intersection of national security and law.  Some challenges involve the inadequacies of both the existing criminal law and the contemporary laws of war to deal with transnational terrorists who are neither criminals nor lawful combatants but partake of aspects of both. Some involve the development of technologies of mass empowerment and mass destruction.  Some involve the proper interpretation of the Constitution and the best division of national security responsibilities among the legislative, executive, and judicial branches of the federal government, and the departments and entities within them.  Some involve understanding the ideas that motivate our adversaries.  Some involve the application of the international laws of war to complex conflicts abroad.  Some involve the changing character of the nation-state.  And some challenges involve several or all of these aspects at the same time.

    In the essays that follow, members of the Hoover Institution’s Task Force on National Security and Law address several of the challenges with which the Obama administration and administrations before it have wrestled and with which the Obama administration and administrations that follow it will continue to grapple.  We do not pretend to agree on a solution or set of solutions. But we do agree on the nature of the problem.  And we are proud to share a defining sensibility.

    The task force’s sensibility is defined in the first place by the conviction that questions of security and questions of law are increasingly intertwined and that the Constitution provides a sturdy and flexible framework that enables the nation to provide for its defense while securing citizens’ rights and respecting international law.  Our sensibility is also characterized by a clear recognition that the rise of transnational terrorism; the proliferation of increasingly inexpensive, mobile, and devastatingly destructive weapons; and the diffusion of power from nation states to international bodies and transnational organizations at one end of the spectrum, and to enterprising individuals at the other end, have generated novel and difficult questions of strategy and law.  It is marked by an acute awareness that war has increasingly come under the supervision of law, and that law has increasingly been employed as a weapon of war.   And it is committed to responding to the use and abuse of domestic and international law in the realm of national security by means of precise analysis, careful criticism, and prudent reform.

    Such a sensibility, we believe, is crucial to advancing the nation’s interest in dealing effectively and lawfully with the daunting security threats it confronts.

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  • Editor

     

    Benjamin Wittes, member of the Hoover Institution’s Task Force on National Security & Law, discusses “many-to-many” threats. He examines cyberwarfare, as well as the potential dangers arising from biotechnology and robotics, and looks at what the Obama Administration can do to address these growing national security challenges.

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  • Editor

     

    Kenneth Anderson discusses the imperatives of American efforts to deny territory to international terrorists and examines the limitations of drone warfare.

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  • Stephen Krasner

     

    Threats to American national security come from three sources: major powers, malevolent states, and weak or failed states.   There is, obviously, nothing new about tension with another major power, with the most obvious current challenge coming from China.

    The other two sources of threat to American national security—malevolent states with effective national control but limited aggregate material capabilities and states that cannot control their own territory (failed or weak states)—are historically unique.  Threats from both of these sources are the result of the decoupling of underlying material capability (as indicated by GDP, population, military spending, and technological capacity) and the ability to inflict harm especially with nuclear and biological weapons.

    In the case of malevolent states these capabilities are controlled by the state apparatus.  Although the ability of malevolent but under-resourced states to inflict catastrophic damage is new, the measures to counter these threats are not.  They include offensive, defensive and deterrent military actions, as well as economic sanctions.

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  • Ruth Wedgwood

    One of the key principles of criminal law is that its substance and reach should be public and transparent.   But that’s not always the case with international criminal law—at least, not when the law is made on the hoof in a diplomatic rush.

    Thus, while the Obama administration has struck a friendly tone toward the decade-old International Criminal Court and its penal jurisdiction over various acts of war, it will need to be mindful that the Court’s long-arm jurisdiction may reach to unexpected places and protagonists.  When the bell tolls, it may affect our own troops.

    One of the curious features of the so-called “Rome Statute” of the Hague-based International Criminal Court—created in a five-week treaty conference in July 1998, and now enjoying a new prosecutor who hails from South Africa—is an unprecedented “looking backward” jurisdictional rule that purports to authorize the Court to investigate and prosecute wartime events occurring even before the country in question joined the court.   This oddity—article 12(3)—was added to the treaty in the midnight hours, on the very last night of the conference, by an unnamed member of the treaty “Bureau,” without any chance for discussion or debate before an adopting vote was taken on the whole text the next morning.  It has no legislative history and no named author.

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