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  • Bill Whalen

     

    In 1992, Queen Elizabeth had a yearlong run of personal woe that she famously likened to an annus horribilis. And horrible it was: two princes’ and one princess’s marriages going up in flames; even Windsor Castle catching fire.

    We still have seven-plus months before 2013 plays out, but so far so bad for President Obama in this, the first of his last four years in the Oval Office. Which begs the question of who or what’s to blame for this presidency going from the high of a sweeping re-election to the valley of scandal and unshakable controversy – the Benghazi affair that won’t go away, IRS heavy-handing with tax-exempts, Justice Department record-seizing.

    What should we chalk it up to?

    1) The inevitable fate of second-term presidents (George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon all hitting rough patches after their re-elections)?

    2) Mr. Obama’s lack of preparation – scant leadership experience – for the job?

    3) Much ado but nothing, the assumption being a friendly media will build Obama back up once they’re done treating his administration as a chew toy?

    4) Bad karma in the personage of Michelle Obama and her bangs – the new hairstyle she broke out just in time for her 49th birthday a precursor to this spate of political misfortune.

    Forget about the bangs (the First Lady already has, reverting to her side-swept look). And the last thing the White House should complain about is critical press coverage. As for a second-term curse, let’s see where this White House stands going into 2016 and its last year.

    Click here to read more.

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  • Edward Lazear

     

    The Hoover Institution’s Conte Initiative on Immigration Reform is the result of numerous conferences, meetings, and conversations during the past year among academics, politicians, and Hoover fellows who are concerned with the structure and outcomes of America’s immigration system.  Chaired by Hoover senior fellow Edward Lazear, the initiative examines legal and illegal immigration. The guiding principle is to identify clear improvements to what most agree is an unfair and inefficient immigration system. Other key participants in this project include Hoover senior fellows Gary Becker and John Cochrane, Hoover director, John Raisian, and University of Chicago Booth School of Business economists Kevin Murphy and Robert Topel.

    The “Immigration Reform” channel on Hoover’s Advancing a Free Society blog is an online space that will provide facts and analysis, with the goal of informing the debate on immigration reform as it unfolds across public and legislative spaces. By providing unbiased information to decision makers and other interested parties and by stripping away obfuscation, the Conte Initiative hopes to assist in the creation of an appropriate immigration system for the United States.

     

    Subscribe to the Immigration Reform channel RSS feed here.

     

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  • Tom Church

     

    Businesses in 103 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) representing 20% of the total civilian labor force would be ineligible to hire new ‘W’ guest workers if the Senate Gang of Eight’s immigration bill (S.744) were passed today. Regulations in the bill prevent businesses from hiring guest workers if the unemployment rate in their MSA is higher than 8.5%, absent special consideration by the commissioner of the soon-to-be-created Bureau of Immigration and Labor Market Research. MSAs with higher than 8.5% unemployment include Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit, Sacramento, and Las Vegas. Businesses in areas of high unemployment looking to hire guest workers would be out of luck unless they followed government-specified recruiting activities, or if the commissioner declared a shortage in the occupation of interest or chose to make additional positions available.

    Nine MSAs with census populations of more than one million people had unemployment rates higher than 8.5% in March 2013. (All unemployment rates displayed are seasonally adjusted.)

    Table 1 - MSA

    Fourteen MSAs in March 2013 with civilian labor forces containing over 200,000 people would need their unemployment rates to drop by more than one percentage point before they would be eligible to hire ‘W’ guest workers. Even if the economy recovers quicker than expected, those fourteen MSAs – representing 12.7 million civilian workers – would have a much longer wait than the rest of the country before they could hire guest workers.

    Click here to read more.

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  • Editor

     

    Our inaugural post estimates the economic and budgetary effects of one part of the Senate Gang of Eight’s proposed immigration reform. It shows that increasing the caps on H-1B visas leads to non-trivial economic and fiscal effects, at least partially offsetting worries over the cost of immigration reform in the next ten years.

    Initial estimates put the appropriations cost of the Senate Gang of Eight’s immigration bill (S. 744) at about $17 billion over ten years, leading at least a few politicians to cite cost as a potential reason to oppose its passage. But as Senator Rubio and others have pointed out, that cost does not include the economic benefits and tax revenue that would come from future immigrants. One group in particular, new H-1B visa workers, would add an estimated $456 billion to GDP and $113 billion to federal tax revenue over the next ten years. $244 billion of that increase in GDP would accrue to current US citizens and residents, with the rest going to the new H-1B workers.

    Figure 1, General H-1B Visa Cap Under Current Law and Proposed Senate Bill

     Figure 1

    The Senate Gang of Eight’s immigration plan increases the general cap on H-1B visas to a minimum of 110,000 and a maximum of 180,000, and increases the master’s degree cap from 20,000 to 25,000. Assuming the first year after passage puts the general cap of initial visas at 110,000 and increases every year by increments of 10,000, then the ten year estimated effect of the law is to increase GDP by $424 billion and federal tax revenue by $107 billion.

    Figure 2, Estimated Ten Year Economic and Budgetary Impact of Raising H-1B Visa Ca

    Figure 2 H-1B visa holders are well-educated and command high wages. 58% in 2011 held advanced degrees and the mean wage of H-1B visa workers was $78,000. Mean wages were $72,000 for new H-1B recipients and $82,000 for those renewing their visas for continuing employment in 2011. The mean starting wages of new H-1B recipients in fiscal year 2015 are estimated to be over $80,000.

    Figure 3, Additional H-1B Workers In Workforce Under Proposed Senate Immigration Bill

    Figure 3

    The current annual cap on H-1B visas of 65,000 plus 20,000 for advanced degree holders was oversubscribed at the beginning of April in just five days. It seems reasonable that the new cap would increase each year by the 10,000 slots allotted until it hit the 180,000 visa limit. Assuming some attrition and a six-year term, there would quickly be several hundred thousand more individuals in the workforce each year over the next decade under the proposed Senate bill. The first year of implementation would see 50,000 new H-1B workers. The fifth year there would be close to 300,000 individuals working in the United States who wouldn’t have otherwise been allowed in the country. That number would top out around half a million additional workers nine to ten years after the bill became law.

    A more complete explanation of all calculations can be found in this paper (PDF) by research fellow Tom Church.

     

    Subscribe to the Immigration Reform channel RSS feed here.

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  • Carson Bruno

     

    “Paper or plastic?”

    Or, if you are shopping in California in the near future: “E. Coli cloth or E. Coli compostable?”

    More than 60 cities and counties in California – roughly one-seventh and one-third of the Golden State’s municipal districts and population, respectively – have moved swiftly to ban plastic bags in grocery stores. Meanwhile, two statewide bans are maneuvering their way through the Sacramento legislative process. Despite being much ballyhooed legislation for their environmental and, oddly enough, pro-business merits, a closer examination of the statewide single-use bag bans reveals what these laws actually are superfluous, posturing and potentially, dangerous.

    In today’s “Spotlight” are AB 158 (Democratic Assemblyman Marc Levine) and SB 405 (Democratic Senator Alex Padilla), which as amended will: a) ban single-use bags starting on January 1, 2015 for large stores and January 1, 2016 for smaller stores; and b) require that reusable bags made available for purchase meet various requirements as certified by the CalRecycle program administered by the state’s Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery.

    Much like the various cities and counties who have instituted their own single-use bag bans, Levine and Padilla cite the environmental effects of making and disposing of the roughly 14 billion plastic bags Californians use annually.  The environmental, and more specifically the pollution, argument is not only emotionally charged, but also plays well in the environmentally progressive Golden State.  However, Sen. Padilla has taken the argument one step further by arguing that his legislation is pro-business as it simplifies business compliance – rather than multiple dozens of different ban policies, businesses will only have to comply with one.

    There are two problems with this concept: the need isn’t valid, and the changes, if enacted, have unintended yet terrible consequences.

    Click here to read more.

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  • Fouad Ajami

     

    In this time of generalized peace, there have been six military campaigns of rescue, waged by the United States.  All had taken place in an extended arc of Islamic geography – the first Gulf war of 1990-1991, the Bosnian campaign in 1995, the deliverance of Kosovo four years later, the destruction of the Taliban emirate in Kabul in 2001, the return to Iraq in 2003, and the toppling of Muammar Qaddafi’s despotism in 2011.  The expedition against the Taliban aside, these wars of rescue were all hotly debated and argued over.  There had been no rush to arms, no eagerness to take on imperial burdens abroad.  If this be an American empire, reluctance has been one of its most discernable attributes.  The sword was drawn more out of moral embarrassment than out of hankering for power.

    We might have come to the end of that trail.  Admittedly, I write as Syria unravels before our eyes – before the eyes of the steward of American power.  By a mix of omission and commission, we have let Homs and Aleppo be, we have offered “non-lethal” aid in the most lethal of brutal wars.  Our principal alibi was the uncertainty of what would unfold in that country were the despot to fall.  In our commander-in-chief, in his “cosmopolitan” biography, in his lawyerly search for the fine line between just and unjust wars, we found adequate shelter from moral claims and responsibility.  We have been here before, it must be conceded.  Bosnia and Sarajevo were subjected to a veritable genocide, in the early 1990s.  Two of our presidents, George Bush the elder, and Bill Clinton, had done their best to keep Bosnia at bay.  Bill Clinton hid behind the phantom of “Balkan ghosts,” and ancient millennial feuds that no campaign of military  rescue could ameliorate.  But still, after the horror of Srebrenica, the American cavalry turned up.  Richard Holbrooke, that “unquiet American,” took us into that conflict.  Our sense of shame and guilt swayed the matter.  We have been rid of that guilt.  Click here to read more.

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  • Bill Whalen

    Guns and Ammo…and Political Camo

     

    Pardon the cynicism, but I wonder if President Obama is really all that upset with the Senate’s inability to pass gun-control legislation this past week.

    In case you missed it, the Democratic-controlled half of Congress failed to pass seven measures having to do with guns, gun-trafficking and gun-ownership, the most notable being an amendment to expand background checks that fell six votes shy of the mark.

    The President wasted no time in showing his disgust, calling the 54-46 outcome “a pretty sad day in Washington” (more, in a moment, on why the majority advantage constituted a legislative defeat). A series of gun-control advocates joined the chorus. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg labeled the background check vote a“disgrace”. Former Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, in this New York Times op-ed, said she was “furious”.

    So why the cynicism?

    Three reasons:

    1)  The Votes Were Designed to Fail. Keep in mind that this Senate amendment didn’t merely fail – it failed under the rules of the debate. Let me amend that: rules determined by the Democratic majority leadership, with the entire chamber’s approval. Rather than setting the rules so that each gun-related amendment would need only 51 votes to pass, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid instead set the bar at 60 votes. Why? Because, as this analysis explains, it enabled Reid to get votes on the measures without opening the door to further tinkering by gun-rights advocates (for example, allowing concealed-weapon permits to cross state lines). Did Reid think he had 60 votes going into the debate? As a Nevadan surely he can count cards heads. If not, and he knew 60 was out of reach, why not lower the threshold to 51 votes (50, actually, since Vice President was presiding) and dare Republicans to filibuster?

    Click here to read more.

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  • Asli Aydintasbas

     

    “If you are no longer interested in having an empire, we’ll take it,” I said, speaking recently in Istanbul to a group of U.S. congressmen and women who expressed ample frustration and, in the case of Syria, a clear disinterest in the affairs of the Middle East.

    I have been observing with some amusement on recent trips to the United States how diametrically opposed Turkish and American appetites about the Middle East have grown. Since the onset of the Iraq war, and more noticeably with the Obama administration, the American public has come to see our region as a “burden.” In Washington, the route to democracy in Egypt and Libya has dampened the initial excitement about the Arab Spring. Regarding Iraq and Afghanistan, the main U.S. policy goal is “keep out of the headlines.” To American eyes, current Israeli and Palestinian leadership look too capricious to even bother with a peace process and everyone I meet in Washington talks about Syria as “a mess,” suggesting that the best course is to stay out.

    Not in Turkey. In fact, throughout the history of the modern Turkish republic, the appetite to delve into the Arab affairs has never been greater. Turkish diplomats and leaders are shuttling back and forth among regional centers and Turkey is deeply embroiled in the politics of Syria and Iraq. Ankara has lifted visa restrictions for most Arab countries, and trade with the Middle East has skyrocketed to roughly a third of Turkish exports today. Turks are in the process of building bridges with Iraqi Kurdistan –once regarded as the archenemy – and the Islamist ruling AK Party in Ankara regards the resurgence of Islamist parties in the post-dictatorship Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya as nothing but a strategic gain for Turkey.

    In fact, once destined to enter the European Union, Ankara has diverted much of its focus to the Middle East and is more interested in regional leadership than haranguing for the last seat in an unfriendly – and to Turks, sinking – Europe.

    Turkish self-confidence is high these days – perhaps higher than ever in the history of the modern republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

    Click here to read more.

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  • Leon Wieseltier

    Rescuing Rescue

     

    “Pax Americana” always struck me as a somewhat misleading description of the postwar dispensation that the United States brought to the world, for two reasons. The first is its implied equivalence with earlier empires. It seems to me that the special fascination, and special benefit to the world, of American internationalism is precisely that it is not imperial. The British were in India for two hundred years; but we are rattled by overseas entanglements that last two hundred months, and even two hundred days. The United States has been a global power, an intrusive global power, but it has not been an empire; which is to say, it has been a new kind of global power, its commercial interests notwithstanding. The taxonomy needs a new term. American activism abroad has often been owed more to ideas than to interests, which is why our foreign policy regularly frightens the “realists” among us, who would in fact prefer that we behave more like a corporation with an army.

    The second flaw in the metaphor of “Pax Americana” is that the American dispensation has not always been characterized by pax. We must be clear about this. Often the peace has come after war, and often the war has been a just war, which established more decent political conditions for the peace. This does not mean that we are “the cops of the world”. We have never been anything remotely like that. We intervene fitfully, infrequently, and less than our principles and the welfare of oppressed people demand. But sometimes we do use military force for purposes of democratization and rescue, and this should be a source of American pride. Among the least noticed facts of our era is that almost all of these interventions of democratization and rescue have been undertaken for the sake of Muslims, in southern Europe and the Middle East and Central Asia. We have not been making war on Muslims, we have been making war for Muslims.

    In the Obama years, however, we have been content – more precisely, he has been content – to let Muslims languish in dictatorial and even genocidal circumstances, even as he piously proclaims his friendship for Muslim peoples. Rescue has fallen, or been banished, from the inventory of American purposes abroad. “Never again” are now the phoniest words this President utters. The Syrian catastrophe, in which Assad has perpetrated atrocities that dwarf many times over anything that Qaddafi was preparing to perpetrate in Libya, has exposed the heartlessness of Obama’s foreign policy. His contribution to the American record in this new age of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity is a stronger American stomach, a thicker American skin. We must be, he believes, less easily moved. But of course the reasons for the United States to intervene on behalf of the Syrian opposition have very little to do with emotionalism. There are huge principles and huge interests at stake in the question of Syrian rescue. Heartlessness in this case is not only unsentimental, it is also unintelligent.

    Click here to read more.

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